Evaluation, statistics and OR

The Migration Paradox

For my final post in this space before 2008, I return to an old favourite topic - migration.  This is for two reasons.  Firstly there is a report looking at the effects of migrant workers on the UK economy knocking around and I always like to comment on them.  Secondly tomorrow sees the expansion of the Schengen agreement area in Europe, which the UK is not party to, but which is forecast to bring economic benefits to the European tourism industry.

The Ernst & Young ITEM Club has published an economic analysis of the impact of migration - it was reported on by the Daily Telegraph on the 18th December under the highly balanced headline "100,000 lose out to migrants in hunt for work".  In fact the report does say that potentially 100,000 young Britons may be unemployed as migrant workers have taken jobs they might have taken, but does also point out that migrant workers have gone into jobs that British people do not want to do. 

Migrant workers taking the dirty jobs have kept a number of industries going and prospering.  The report quotes and I can confirm that the Scottish fish industry is based now on migrant workers at the processing end (mainly Estonians I gather).

The report indicates that economic growth is boosted by migrant workers, which has impacted favourably on interest rates, wage inflation, and headline inflation.  In an interesting juxtaposition, the Telegraph article also advises that there will be a clamp down on entry visas for visitors.

The rest of Europe is considering the economic and social impact of the widening of the Schengen arrangement.  This removes boundary controls between currently 15 European states (not the UK and Ireland), widening to 24 European states tomorrow, and Switzerland joins the group in 2008.

The tourism industry is hailing this as a great thing, as it is perceived that the need for border controls and individual visas is a barrier for Russians in particular, who are as likely to visit Turkey, where there are no visa requirements, as the 15 old Schengen states, where one visa is required.

To be fair, there is also some consternation as to whether this will make it more difficult to combat organised crime, illegal immigration and terrorism.  However to watch images of EU nationals being able to go through borders without controls makes me wonder why people want to go to Britain, where even returning ex-pats are made to feel guilty as they line up to have their passports checked.

Father Christmas will have an easier time getting round the rest of Europe next week than he will getting into the UK to hand out presents to the good children.  After all, he comes in from the Norway/Finland border, so who knows, he could actually be Russian (do you really trust all his little helpers?), and aiming to steal our dirty jobs!

Seasons Greetings and see you in the New Year!

Is IT a core skill?

The Leitch report has been out for a year - happy anniversary!  Has much changed?  Possibly, but it is too early to tell from the evidence base and I prefer not to rely on press releases about nice things happening.  That is perhaps a bit unfair on the 22 colleges and providers who have just received a standard for excellence in their work with employers from the LSC, but I like to know about results!

Microsoft have done a survey looking at business skills as part of the anniversary event.  From evidence from 500 respondents - UK business leaders - they found that IT skills came 7th in a list of top business skills.  The things our giants of business and industry are looking for are team working and interpersonal skills, initiative and problem solving skills.  Microsoft feels that IT skills are undervalued.

Ho hum - where do I start with pulling this one apart?  Sometimes people make it just too easy after all!

To be of use to business leaders, there are certain automatic skills that people are assumed to have - literacy and numeracy were not on the list, in my view as they were considered to be a basic prerequisite of being employed.  Similarly the ability to speak the language of the employing business was not specifically included although could be understood as part of verbal communication (but what about understanding what you hear?), but I am pretty sure that this is also seen as necessary. 

I am pretty convinced that basic IT ability is also in there with other core skills required to function in the work place, and IT skills only really gain attention when it is something specific - web design, programming ability, the knowledge to prevent a company's systems from being attacked by viruses or spy-ware, ability to manipulate Facebook to the needs of the company.  I think that where IT skills do themselves no favours is that business leaders will see what their children do with computers - school course work and play games - rather less impressive for running a business, unless you sell gaming software.

The top 6 business skills listed are all non-measurable skills, more to do with individual motivation than anything else.  Indeed, looking at the top 6 skills shown below, I believe that they are brilliantly demonstrated by teams in Ocean's 11, the Lady-killers, The Lavender Hill Mob, Wanted and the Italian Job, not to mention The Usual Suspects.  In most of these cases, the ability to use a gun was the seventh skill required, but in some, IT skills were also required.  Perhaps putting the above listed films on Business Studies courses would be more use than studying law, accountancy or psychology?

I think that comment proves that it is too close to Christmas to write more!

Those top 6 business skills in full: 1) Team working and interpersonal skills, 2) Initiative, 3) Analysing and problem solving, 4) Verbal communication, 5) Personal planning and organising, 6) Flexibility.

Selling learning with greed

This is perhaps an unfair title for my thoughts today, but why not?  The LSC last week released the findings of a study that implied that British households spend twice as much on trips to hair and beauty salons and toiletry products than on learning a new skill.  In order to sell learning, they then pushed the idea that if you diverted that money into learning skills, you could afford more trips to the salon and classier products.

Let us put aside a few carping comments or things that would detract from this lovely bit of research, such as:

• The LSC covers England not Britain
• The sales pitch for learning is that if you have low levels of qualifications, the training would be free - so you don't actually have to give up anything, do you?
• Did they really factor in what every tax payer contributes via income tax and indirect taxes into what we all spend on learning each year?
• Do we have to continue to assume that learning a new skill is synonymous with paying to attend a training course and getting accredited qualifications?
• The wording implies a concentration on female spending (hair dressers, beauty parlours, cosmetics and toiletries) - what about spending on perceived male areas like beer, football matches, Sky subscriptions, DIY?

Put that quibbling aside - the intention is noble and something needs to be done to encourage people to invest in their own development.  I hope the marketing gurus used by the LSC have chosen a good route, but I am not so sure.  Personally I go to the beauty salon and the hairdresser to ensure that I look the part for work, and to provide an opportunity to de-stress and relax a bit.  I do personal development, related to work and non-related work challenges, and I enjoy doing it.  The last time I did a qualification, I found myself in need of more facials due to the added stress of coursework, getting to classes on time, and getting all the usual out of work stuff done in less time than I had before.

Like I say - nice intention, but if people were numerically literate enough to pull the story to pieces like I just did, it would be even better!