Evaluation, statistics and OR

Taking a Macro or a Micro view on funding success

Two stories have been reported in the media over the past two days, that can be taken at the macro level as an indictment of government policy, or at the micro level, as a great boon to individual beneficiaries.

One yesterday from the Audit Commission criticised the instability of funding and the administrative burden of bidding for funds and managing funds on work with disaffected young people, including young offenders.  The Government hit back saying that this was unfair on youth workers who did a marvellous job.  I couldn't help thinking that both were right - particularly having evaluated a project for young offenders in the Midlands last year that had just lost its funding.  The funding systems and the accountability that go with them are a nightmare, and must distract from the fundamental purpose of work in this area - to re-engage and inspire disaffected young people and get them ready to make a positive contribution to society.  Individual workers do resent this funding hash, and do their wonderful work despite it, not as a result of it.  On the project I evaluated, I spoke to the youth workers on the day they received their P45s, but all were positive about the work they had done, and some were still seeing clients that day as well.

Today the Public Accounts Committee have said that an unacceptably high number of people in England cannot read, write or count properly, and Ministers have defended their record of having pumped huge amounts of funds into Skills for Life in an attempt to redress this.  At an individual level, they reckon that something over 1 million people have benefited.  Again through various evaluations I have done in Plymouth and for Investors in People, I have been lucky enough to meet individuals who have benefited from Skills for Life, and heard their stories about how it has changed their lives. 

So much as it pains me to say it, I have to defend the politicians on that one, and say their activities, delivered by dedicated workers on the ground, have made a big difference.  However, the size of the task is immense and the funding and measuring rules that have been put in place have not been helpful and teachers and trainers all say that the tools they have to use to do the job do not meet everyone's needs apart from the funding regimes.

Ah - is there a link there?  Good work being done, but could be done better if the funding rules were not quite so silly?  The balance between doing good with public funds and being seen to purchase the right things with public funds inevitably brings perverse outcomes if it is not totally right.  I am not sure that the right balance has ever been achieved.  Perhaps that might be worth a study, carefully funded of course, and with a suitable procurement process...

It's official - it's a recession.

So there we have it - the official statistics point to a second quarter of falling Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which sets the definition of a recession.  Personally I always favoured The Economist's definition, which was also a lead indicator, which was the number of times the word recession was used in the press in a defined period.  If it hit a certain level, it was recession and the figures to confirm it would appear rather later.

Actually, on the official definition, we haven't seen a recession since the early 1990s - I am not sure where the Economist figures fit with that as I haven't subscribed for many years now.

Anyway, we can expect to see more misery in the news programmes, many more articles on how to survive a recession, how to manage the household budget in a recession, austerity food and drink, and pictures of people being turned out of their homes.  The early 1990s recession was grim I recall - I was lucky in that I had a job with a major company that wasn't about to make people redundant, but my husband had a new business start up that failed (albeit we managed to close it while it was solvent).  We had bought our first home, but interest rates went mad and property prices fell.  We lived in the North East too, where unemployment was already high and opportunities exceptionally rare.  My husband applied for one job with a drinks manufacturer that had 600 applicants - how can you chose the best person for the job in those circumstances?

This time round we both have small businesses, we have no mortgage, but our savings are being eaten away by low interest rates, poor investment conditions and performance, and inflation.  We are also affected by a weak pound.

So, 2009 promises fun and games for all.  However to be full of doom and gloom is also not helpful - if we all stop spending, retrench and focus in on ourselves and our misery, we will contribute to helping the recession thrive and go on for longer.  Perhaps it is time for a nice new pair of shoes in the knowledge that I am helping the economy?

Building confidence - or at least not destroying it!

Happy New Year to any readers that fall across this page during January!

It is a difficult time to find anything other than the weather or the economy to discuss, and both could be described as depressing - we have two inches of snow here already and no sign of it stopping and despite a slight climb in the sterling/euro exchange rate, I still feel poor.  Over the past month I have however noted a distinct difference in reporting policies between the BBC and teh nearest equivalent in France - France Televisions.

It seems to me that all UK news bulletins start badly and continue to pile on the misery for the full half hour at the end of which, if you are very lucky, they will show a film of a bird skidding on ice or eating a chip as the "light and fluffy" good news story at the end.  As this has been preceded by extensive forecasting of misery, death, penury, bankruptcy and the end of civilisation as we know it, the sight of a skidding bird or a pigeon about to indulge in too much saturated fats is not enough to promote the optimism and pioneering spirit required to face 2009.

France Television does cover the global economic crisis, but it is rarely the first item nor is it ever the last.  Instead, blowing up avalanche risks is always a top priority, plus pointing out the wonderful snow coverage at all ski stations is always favoured.  If retailers have had a good week, they tell you about it, they don't cast doubt on the figures and imply "they" are trying to hoodwink you.  The tone is to urge you that if we all work together we can get out of this, rather than we are all doomed.

With the New Year, there are a major run of politicians and the like giving their good will wishes for 2009, and the general note is that yes, 2009 is likely to be pretty grim, but there are opportunities, and we must all look out for each other, and if we work together, we will come out the other side stronger, happier, healthier and living in a nice world.

In the middle of the night, we all get those cold sweats about how 2009 will work out for us and our loved ones, but looking for the bright side and new opportunities is much more healthy, so why not give it a go?  I must remind myself of that at 3am this morning!