Today Migrantwatch UK issued their briefing paper 1.15 on the Impact of Immigration on GDP per head - it got very prominent listings on the BBC website, and got a lot of people huffing and puffing about the figures presented.
The Migrationwatch paper itself is fairly thin, and in places relies on reports that are older than 2 years, which for the UK migrant worker issue is rather naive. They also do some fairly classic "pick'n'mix" of the facts they like and the facts they don't like. An example of this is where they identify the increased numbers of A8 workers arriving, but don't look at the age profile, so assume they will demonstrate the same demographic profile as the UK population as a whole. From studies undertaken by Mercia Research & Strategy, it is clear that the A8 workers have a fairly narrow age profile (between 20 and 40 in general) and are unlikely to bring older members of their family with them.
There are some areas where they have not investigated however, which in my view mean that while in their terms their headline facts that each migrant worker adds 4p per week to the economy may be superficially correct, the fact that these workers underpin the economy is totally lost and could change the meaning of the impact. Work done recently for Improve Ltd, the food and drink manufacturing sector skills council, showed that the Scottish seafish industry relies on A8 workers as do many other parts of the food manufacturing industry all over the UK.
Migrant workers are taking the jobs that UK nationals are not keen to do. These include jobs where the working hours are anti-social (how do shelves get restocked in supermarkets for Boxing Day?), the tasks are repetitive or unpleasant, the pay is at or near the National Minimum Wage, but that society demands are done, as we have got used to living in a 24 hour economy.
If we didn't have migrant workers taking on these jobs and those skilled jobs where employers can't find the workers in the UK (see the recent study in London), would the economy and GDP be growing? Would we be seeing the increase in numbers of 16-17 year olds staying on in education? Would we be enjoying internet shopping, low cost flights, food prices that are static in real terms and being able to eat out at restaurants with waiter/waitress service? Or would the scarcity of people willing to take the jobs that underpin these services mean that they would not exist or would be a lot more expensive than we are prepared to pay for?
Until you and I are willing to either do these roles ourselves, or have members of our families do them, or value people who do these roles, let us not be churlish or xenophobic, but instead welcome those who are willing to do the things we don't want to do.
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