Evaluation, statistics and OR

Be a World Citizen

I have just come back from the UK, and spent quite a bit of yesterday reading about a young man who tried to fight for the freedom and democratic rights of others.  Unfortunately, due to a couple of media plunders, that young man had to give up his front line work, but will probably do good things behind the scenes in future.  Bad luck they spotted you, Harry!

At the weekend, there was an incursion into Ecuador, and the second in command of the FARC was killed - there was a bit about that in the papers, but not nearly so much - after all, it is a continent away and nothing to do with us.

The week before the FARC released some of the hostages it has been holding for years, who brought with them out of the Columbian jungle news of another hostage.  She is called Ingrid Betancourt, she has been a hostage of the FARC for over 2000 days, she is being treated appallingly, and it is reported that she has hepatitis and may be dying.

Up in the United States, we are being kept enthralled by a contest for who will stand for President between a potential first woman President and a potential first black President.  It is a momentous moment for the world, but what does it have to do with Ingrid?  At the time she was taken hostage, she was campaigning to be President of Columbia, and 6 days before she was taken, she was filmed with the 2nd in command of FARC, demanding an end to hostilities, to hostage taking and to trying to pervert the course of democracy.

If Hilary Clinton or Barak Obama were to be kidnapped before the next bout of primaries, there would be an international outcry about democracy and law and order.  If they were held for 6 years, the country suspected of hiding them would be bombed to smithereens (think of Afghanistan or Iraq).  What would happen if they died in captivity?

Think back to the release of John McCarthy, Terry Waite and Brian Keenan, and then be a world citizen and sign the petition to release Ingrid Betancourt.

What price the oil economy?

The BBC and France24 both have stories today about the price of oil being near $99 per barrel, and instead of the usual downturn in barrel price at this time of year, there is indeed a concerning upward drift in oil prices.

Some things mitigate against this - oil is priced in US dollars, yet for both sterling and the Euro, the dollar is weak and therefore the worst of the price rises are ameliorated.  Consider for a moment how the UK would be faring if oil was priced in Euros, with the pound at a record low against the Euro (not one that is making headlines in the UK currently, but for a number of us, it is THE most important indicator at the moment)?

The weak dollar is therefore a good thing for the UK, even if exporters are concerned, as the UK economy is fuelled, in every sense by oil.  Power is generated using oil and gas - we closed the coal mining industry in the 80s if you recall.  People get to work and to school by car - the BCC is right to say that public transport is not fit for purpose - there aren't enough routes outside the main hub and spoke systems, trains are overcrowded and delayed, buses ditto.  From being a gas producer, the UK is now a net importer of gas, due to a somewhat misguided decision to allow power generation using natural gas in the early 90s. 

So while there is a bit of a rise in inflation (and how long until power and oil costs are taken out of the calculations?), the impact is not as great as it might be.

France is in a similar position, in that 80% of it electricity is generated by nuclear power, but benefits from having less of a commuter mentality.  Apart from Paris, which is different to the rest of France on so many levels, the average French worker assumes that they will be able to go home for lunch if they want. 

In sectors where working away from the business base is required, construction for example, the assumption is that you will get an allowance close to 10 Euros for a nice leisurely lunch.  This is why you can get an excellent four course lunch with wine and coffee, though often limited choice, across rural France for about 10 Euros a head.

Because the French don't have any oil reserves themselves, and closed their coal industry about 10 years ago, they have had to import for a while, so mains gas is more limited and options like geothermal heating, heat exchangers in wells and rivers, and site specific gas and paraffin heaters are commonplace.  They also take more interest in insulation technology than the UK, and all houses being sold now have to have an energy consumption report before being put on the market.

But future scenarios are still scary - what if the US goes to war with Iran, what if the dollar regains its strength, what if Venezuela decides to stop selling oil for a couple of months (well it has had a financial bonanza recently, so why not?)?  How will our Western, oil-based economies cope? 

My tongue in cheek predictions about this scenario!

The UK will blame it all on Labour, find the responsible civil servant, sack him and then take on a big four consultancy to find a way out of the crisis (the consultancy will offer a role to the sacked civil servant on three times his original salary).

The French will go on strike.